Costs for Decision Making

When choosing between alternatives, three cost concepts determine what’s relevant:

ConceptDefinitionDecision Rule
Differential CostDifference in cost between alternativesInclude—this is what matters
Opportunity CostValue of best foregone alternativeInclude—even if not in accounting records
Sunk CostAlready incurred, can’t be recoveredExclude—never differential

The Framework

When comparing alternatives, ask: What changes based on my choice?

  • Anything identical across all options = noise → ignore
  • Anything that differs = signal → include
  • Value of paths not taken = hidden cost → include

Quick Reference

If the cost…Then…
Changes depending on which option you pickDifferential → include
Represents what you give up by not choosing alternativeOpportunity cost → include
Has already been spent regardless of decisionSunk → exclude

Why Sunk Costs Are Dangerous

Psychologically: “We’ve already invested $50K, we can’t stop now.”

Logically: That $50K is gone whether you continue or not. The only relevant question is whether future benefits exceed future costs from this point forward.

The Sunk Cost Fallacy

Continuing a failing project because of past investment. Past spending is irrelevant to future decisions.


North: Where this comes from

East: What opposes this?

South: Where this leads

West: What’s similar?