Assess Complexity Using External Signals, Not Feelings
Your default will distort complexity assessment. Over-budgeters see complexity everywhere. Under-budgeters see simplicity everywhere. Use external signals that exist independent of your perception.
The Complexity Scorecard
| Signal | Low Complexity (0 pts) | High Complexity (1 pt) |
|---|---|---|
| Precedent | Done this exact type before | Novel territory |
| Option clarity | 2-3 obvious choices | Many options, unclear boundaries |
| Variable familiarity | Understand how these interact | Can’t model interdependencies |
| Expert consensus | Experts agree on approach | Experts disagree or “it depends” |
| Reversibility | Easy to undo/adjust | Locks in downstream choices |
| Stakeholder alignment | Just me, or aligned interests | Multiple parties, conflicting interests |
Scoring:
- 0-2 points = Low complexity budget
- 3+ points = High complexity budget
How to Use Each Signal
Precedent
“Have I made this exact type of decision before?”
| Answer | Complexity |
|---|---|
| ”Yes, several times” | Low — you know the variables |
| ”Similar, but different context” | Medium — partial transfer |
| ”Never faced this before” | High — unknown unknowns likely |
Option Clarity
“How many genuine options exist, and are their boundaries clear?”
| Answer | Complexity |
|---|---|
| ”2-3 clear options” | Low — comparison is tractable |
| ”4-6 options with some overlap” | Medium |
| ”Many options, hard to even enumerate” | High — option space itself needs work |
Variable Familiarity
“Do I understand how the key variables interact?”
| Answer | Complexity |
|---|---|
| ”Yes, I can predict outcomes” | Low |
| ”Mostly, with some unknowns” | Medium |
| ”I can’t model what affects what” | High — system is opaque |
Expert Consensus
“If I asked 3 experts, would they agree on approach?”
| Answer | Complexity |
|---|---|
| ”They’d all say roughly the same thing” | Low — domain has established best practices |
| ”They’d agree on framework, differ on details” | Medium |
| ”They’d disagree fundamentally or say ‘it depends‘“ | High — no established right answer |
Reversibility
“If I choose wrong, how hard is it to undo?”
| Answer | Complexity |
|---|---|
| ”Easy to reverse, low switching cost” | Low — can course-correct |
| ”Moderate effort to reverse” | Medium |
| ”Locks in downstream choices, high switching cost” | High — must get it right-ish |
Stakeholder Alignment
“Who’s affected, and do their interests align?”
| Answer | Complexity |
|---|---|
| ”Just me” or “All aligned” | Low — no conflict to navigate |
| ”Multiple parties, mostly aligned” | Medium |
| ”Conflicting interests, political dimensions” | High — decision is also negotiation |
Example: GIC Calculator Decision
| Signal | Assessment | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Precedent | Have done similar builds, but not finance domain | 0.5 → round to 1 |
| Option clarity | Clear: build vs. buy vs. hire vs. wait | 0 |
| Variable familiarity | Understand some (coding), not all (tax implications) | 1 |
| Expert consensus | Experts would mostly agree: “just use HISA if unsure” | 0 |
| Reversibility | High — can stop building anytime | 0 |
| Stakeholders | Just me | 0 |
Score: 2 points → Low complexity budget
But the default said: “This is complex, need to research everything.”
The scorecard overrides the default.
Why External Signals Matter
| Internal Assessment | Problem |
|---|---|
| ”This feels complex” | Anxiety makes everything feel complex |
| ”This feels simple” | Confidence makes everything feel simple |
| ”I need more time” | Over-budgeters always feel this |
| ”I know enough” | Under-budgeters always feel this |
External signals are facts. Either you’ve done this type before or you haven’t. Either experts agree or they don’t. Your feelings don’t change the signals.
Common Trap
Gaming the scorecard. “Well, it’s KIND OF novel territory…” If you find yourself stretching definitions to increase the score, that’s your over-budgeter default trying to override. Be honest: have you done this type before, yes or no?
North: Where this comes from
- Complexity as Convergence Time (what we’re trying to assess)
- Diagnosing Decision Default Type (why objectivity matters)
East: What opposes this?
- Feeling-Based Complexity Assessment (“this feels complex”)
- Uniform Treatment (same rigor for everything)
South: Where this leads
- Appropriate budget allocation
- Counter-Weight Rules by Default Type (applying correct counter-weight)
West: What’s similar?
- Cynefin Framework (categorizing problem types)
- Risk Assessment Matrices (external criteria for categorization)